Harris or Trump? Allan Lichtman Releases His Prediction
小蓝视频 Distinguished Professor of History Allan Lichtman, dubbed the Prophet of Presidential Elections (The New York Times) and Polling Nostradamus (Newsweek) has officially announced his prediction for the winner of the 2024 election.听
鈥淭he Democrats will hold on to the White House, and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States,鈥 Lichtman told The New York Times today in a video. .
Lichtman鈥檚 prediction is based on 13 Keys, a model he developed with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981. The 13 Keys ignore all polls and pollsters. They focus on 13 true-false statements. If six or more of the keys are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election. If five or fewer are false, the incumbent is expected to win.
The keys include whether: 听
- 听The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections
- 听The sitting president is running for re-election
- 听The White House party is avoiding a primary contest
- 听There is a third-party challenger
- 听The short-term economy is strong
- 听The long-term economy growth has been as good as the last two terms
- 听The White House party has made major changes to national policy
- 听There is sustained social unrest during the term
- 听The White House is untainted by scandal, the incumbent party is charismatic
- 听The challenger is uncharismatic
- 听The incumbent is charismatic
- 听The White House party has major failure in foreign policy
- 听The White House party has foreign policy success.
Lichtman found that eight of the keys are true (in Harris鈥 favor), while three are false, favoring Trump. But, of course, the election is still several months away, and two keys, a foreign policy failure or a foreign policy success, could still flip before then. 听
Lichtman has some advice for readers. 鈥淜amala Harris will be the next president of the United States, at least that鈥檚 my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote,鈥 he says.
To keep on top of Lichtman鈥檚 predictions and his take on other political issues, tune into his live show every Tuesday and Thursday at 9 p.m. EST on .
More About Professor Lichtman
Professor Lichtman received his PhD from Harvard University in 1973 with a specialty in modern American history and quantitative methods. He became an Assistant Professor of History at 小蓝视频 in 1973 and a Full Professor in 1980, and a Distinguished Professor in 2011. He received the Scholar/Teacher of the year award for 1992-93. He has published 11 books and several hundred popular and scholarly articles. He has lectured in the US and internationally and provided commentary for major US and foreign networks and leading newspapers and magazines across the world. He has been an expert witness in some 100 civil and voting rights cases. His book, White Protestant Nation: The Rise of the American Conservative Movement was a finalist for the National Book Critics Circle Award in nonfiction. His co-authored book with Richard Breitman, FDR and the Jews, won the National Jewish Book Award Prize in American Jewish History and was a finalist for the Los Angeles Times book prize in history. His book, The Case for Impeachment, was a national independent bookstore bestseller. Lichtman was listed by rise.global as #85 among 100 most influential geopolitical experts in the world and received the lifetime achievement award from Who's Who.